[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"navigation":3,"/docs/projections/growth-rate":100,"/docs/projections/growth-rate-surround":227},[4,23,48,68],{"title":5,"path":6,"stem":7,"children":8,"icon":22},"Getting Started","/docs/getting-started","1.docs/1.getting-started/1.index",[9,12,17],{"title":10,"path":6,"stem":7,"icon":11},"Introduction","i-lucide-house",{"title":13,"path":14,"stem":15,"icon":16},"Creating an Account","/docs/getting-started/installation","1.docs/1.getting-started/2.installation","i-lucide-user-plus",{"title":18,"path":19,"stem":20,"icon":21},"Quick Start","/docs/getting-started/usage","1.docs/1.getting-started/3.usage","i-lucide-rocket",false,{"title":24,"path":25,"stem":26,"children":27,"page":22},"Data Sources","/docs/data-sources","1.docs/2.data-sources",[28,33,38,43],{"title":29,"path":30,"stem":31,"icon":32},"Manual Data","/docs/data-sources/manual-data","1.docs/2.data-sources/1.manual-data","i-lucide-file-text",{"title":34,"path":35,"stem":36,"icon":37},"API Sources","/docs/data-sources/api-sources","1.docs/2.data-sources/2.api-sources","i-lucide-globe",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41,"icon":42},"Managing Sources","/docs/data-sources/managing-sources","1.docs/2.data-sources/3.managing-sources","i-lucide-settings",{"title":44,"path":45,"stem":46,"icon":47},"Inbound API","/docs/data-sources/inbound-api","1.docs/2.data-sources/4.inbound-api","i-lucide-webhook",{"title":49,"path":50,"stem":51,"children":52,"page":22},"Visualization","/docs/visualization","1.docs/3.visualization",[53,58,63],{"title":54,"path":55,"stem":56,"icon":57},"Charts","/docs/visualization/charts","1.docs/3.visualization/1.charts","i-lucide-chart-line",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"icon":62},"Combined Views","/docs/visualization/combined-views","1.docs/3.visualization/2.combined-views","i-lucide-layers",{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"icon":67},"Correlations","/docs/visualization/correlations","1.docs/3.visualization/3.correlations","i-lucide-git-compare",{"title":69,"path":70,"stem":71,"children":72,"icon":79},"Projections","/docs/projections","1.docs/4.projections/1.index",[73,75,80,85,90,95],{"title":69,"path":70,"stem":71,"icon":74},"i-lucide-chart-spline",{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78,"icon":79},"Linear trend projection","/docs/projections/linear","1.docs/4.projections/2.linear","i-lucide-trending-up",{"title":81,"path":82,"stem":83,"icon":84},"Moving average projection","/docs/projections/moving-average","1.docs/4.projections/3.moving-average","i-lucide-activity",{"title":86,"path":87,"stem":88,"icon":89},"Exponential smoothing projection","/docs/projections/exponential-smoothing","1.docs/4.projections/4.exponential-smoothing","i-lucide-waves",{"title":91,"path":92,"stem":93,"icon":94},"Logarithmic projection","/docs/projections/logarithmic","1.docs/4.projections/5.logarithmic","i-lucide-log-in",{"title":96,"path":97,"stem":98,"icon":99},"Growth rate (CAGR) projection","/docs/projections/growth-rate","1.docs/4.projections/6.growth-rate","i-lucide-percent",{"id":101,"title":96,"body":102,"description":221,"extension":222,"meta":223,"navigation":224,"path":97,"seo":225,"stem":98,"__hash__":226},"docs/1.docs/4.projections/6.growth-rate.md",{"type":103,"value":104,"toc":215},"minimark",[105,122,127,130,141,148,151,157,163,167,188,192],[106,107,108,109,113,114,121],"p",{},"The ",[110,111,112],"strong",{},"growth rate"," method uses your data's ",[115,116,120],"a",{"href":117,"rel":118},"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate",[119],"nofollow","Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)"," to project future values as compounding percentage growth.",[123,124,126],"h2",{"id":125},"how-it-works","How it works",[106,128,129],{},"CAGR is calculated from the first and last values in your historical data:",[131,132,137],"pre",{"className":133,"code":135,"language":136},[134],"language-text","CAGR = (end_value / start_value) ^ (1 / n_periods) - 1\n","text",[138,139,135],"code",{"__ignoreMap":140},"",[106,142,143,144,147],{},"Where ",[138,145,146],{},"n_periods"," is the number of time steps between the first and last data points, expressed as a fraction of a year.",[106,149,150],{},"The projection then applies this rate repeatedly from the last known value:",[131,152,155],{"className":153,"code":154,"language":136},[134],"projected_value = last_value × (1 + CAGR) ^ t\n",[138,156,154],{"__ignoreMap":140},[106,158,143,159,162],{},[138,160,161],{},"t"," is the number of periods ahead being forecast.",[123,164,166],{"id":165},"when-to-use-it","When to use it",[168,169,170,178,185],"ul",{},[171,172,173,174,177],"li",{},"You think about your metric in terms of ",[110,175,176],{},"percentage growth per period"," (e.g. \"growing at 15% per year\").",[171,179,180,181,184],{},"Your data shows ",[110,182,183],{},"exponential-style growth"," - each period's increase is proportional to the current value.",[171,186,187],{},"Examples: revenue with consistent growth rates, compound interest, subscription counts scaling multiplicatively.",[123,189,191],{"id":190},"limitations","Limitations",[168,193,194,201,204],{},[171,195,196,197,200],{},"Highly sensitive to the ",[110,198,199],{},"first and last data points"," - outliers at either end distort the calculated rate significantly. Consider whether your start and end values are representative.",[171,202,203],{},"Assumes the historical growth rate will continue unchanged, which is often optimistic over long horizons.",[171,205,206,207,210,211,214],{},"Not suitable for metrics that are ",[110,208,209],{},"flat, declining, or negative"," - CAGR is undefined for zero or negative starting values and produces misleading results for declining series. Use ",[115,212,213],{"href":77},"Linear trend"," for declining metrics.",{"title":140,"searchDepth":216,"depth":216,"links":217},2,[218,219,220],{"id":125,"depth":216,"text":126},{"id":165,"depth":216,"text":166},{"id":190,"depth":216,"text":191},"Project compound percentage-based growth forward from your historical average.","md",{},{"icon":99},{"title":96,"description":221},"BwXJW7JsUsNLFfhRaTgZ8NJwk9bgs1kq7I8I-To_p0Y",[228,230],{"title":91,"path":92,"stem":93,"description":229,"icon":94,"children":-1},"Model growth that is fast early and gradually levels off over time.",null]